My views on the current situation in Afghanistan - August 2021

While a lot has been discussed on the internet on what happened in Afghanistan, as a history enthusiast I cannot refrain myself from adding my thought here - As they say, history often repeats itself and those who don't learn from it are bound to fail. The British learned their lesson in 1842 the Russians in 1989 and the Americans in 2021.

 

This is precisely what happened in 1840, when the British invaded Afghanistan in the hope of using the divide between the then ruling factions (Barakzai and Sodozai) to have their puppet king installed. The Afghan warlords united against the British and such was the uprising that only 1 man returned from the 15000 strong army from India.

 

The same happened during the Soviet invasion of 1970s, and the same was repeated now.

One very interesting aspect was the fall of Mazar-e-Sharif to the Taliban. This was one of the first cities to fall a few weeks back. Those who have knowledge of the 1990s war in Afghanistan will recall that this city has traditionally been very anti-Taliban. It was the HQ of anti-Taliban leaders like Dostum and Ahmad Shah Masood. So why did this city become one of the first to be captured by Taliban.

The demographics of Afghanistan is a collection of tribes with distinct ethnic backgrounds. The 4 main tribal groups are Pashtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. These have historically been very different from each other and always at war with each other. While to the outside world will see the warring factions as an opportunity to divide and rule, nothing is more worse to them than a foreign invader on their land. They will unite and fight till the invader is thrown out.

The Pashtuns have traditionally dominated the South and Eastern part of Afghanistan, while the Uzbeks and Tajiks dominate the North and Western part. The Taliban's core strength comes from the Pashtuns and that is why Kandahar in the south of Afghanistan has traditionally been a Taliban stronghold (and Mullah Omar's capital) while Mazar-e-Sharif in the north of Afghanistan was the stronghold of Uzbek and Tajiks. The Northern Alliance was the only counter force to the Taliban rule in the '90s, and was made of Tajiks and Uzbeks. It was led by Abdul Rashid Dostum (an ethnic Uzbek) and Ahmad Shah Masood (an ethnic Tajik). These same leaders had fought the Soviets a decade back and once the soviets left, the internal conflict had resumed between them and the Taliban.

So in my view, I think a lot of tribes in Afghanistan see the Taliban as a natural successor (or maybe savior) to a foreign invader. That is why the city of Mazar-e-Sharif easily surrendered to the Taliban even with its difference in ideology with Taliban. Maybe things might be different this time, or maybe following history some of the factions might resume a civil war in Afghanistan. That only time will tell.